Equity benchmark Nifty scaled the psychological milestone of 21,000 in afternoon trade on Friday, and the Sensex touched its all-time intraday high of 69,888.33 after the central bank's decision to keep policy rates unchanged in line with market expectations. The 50-share benchmark index opened on a bullish note, after taking a breather on Thursday, and rose to 21,006.10. As many as 25 stocks were trading in the green, and 24 stocks defied the broader market and were trading in the negative territory.
The Sensex jumped 412.23 points on Friday, braving heavy volatility during the day, amid the Reserve Bank of India maintaining status quo on the benchmark lending rate and buying in index heavyweights Reliance Industries Limited and ITC. The BSE Sensex climbed 412.23 points or 0.70 per cent to settle at 59,447.18. During the day, the benchmark hit a high of 59,654.44 and a low 58,876.36. The Nifty also gained 144.80 points or 0.82 per cent to finish at 17,784.35.
With the reality of coalition politics staring the BJP in its face, this was inevitable, points out Ramesh Menon.
JSW Steel was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.68 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were major laggards.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu's party secured a 'supermajority' in Parliament by winning over 60 seats in Sunday's crucial parliamentary election, seen as a litmus test for the pro-Beijing politician whose policies are being closely watched by both India and China amidst regional power dynamics.
'If Modi were to be elected, he would be part of a coalition government, and within that he would have to take this minority into account. Muslims cannot relate to the idea of Hindu nationalism. Although it is presented as a pan-Indian idea, it appears to them to be exclusive.'
The central bank had in July last year imposed curbs such as doubling of margin requirement and a ceiling on position limits on exchange-traded currency derivatives.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
India's exports are expected to touch $360 billion in the current fiscal from $312.35 billion in 2013-14, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said.
Clarifying norms for single brand retail trading, government on Tuesday allowed foreign investors to conduct business through more than one joint venture in India.
Given the concerns around trade wars that threaten to jeopardise global capital flows as well, attracting foreign capital needs to be a policy priority, says Neelkanth Mishra.
'The challenge in India will be reviving consumption/investment.' 'If the negative surprise in earnings is very sharp or lasts longer than March, it can trigger a sharp sell-off.'
Applicants for Indian citizenship under the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 (CAA) can submit any of nine documents, including valid or expired passport, ID cards and land tenancy records, to prove he or she is a national of Afghanistan or Bangladesh or Pakistan.
The unilateral pressure by US administration on India, at the behest of US Business Associations lobby through US International Trade Commission investigations and request to USTR to enlist India under Priority Foreign Country under Special 301 review, lacks legitimacy under WTO framework, the signatories to the letter said.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.5 per cent, followed by Kotak Bank, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, HUL, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma. On the other hand, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, PowerGrid and Infosys were the laggards.
He urged China to bolster the flow of its tourists to the Maldives.
Bibek Debroy raised seven questions about the new institution.
Russia's unprecedented rapprochement with North Korea has raised concerns about the re-emergence of a Russia-China-North Korea alliance which could increase the probability of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
But their trajectory and direction have been largely influenced by politics and the political leadership's understanding of how the economy needs to be managed, explains A K Bhattacharya.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
If Modi wants to leave a real legacy, breaking India's strategic triangulation would be the real gift, notes Shekhar Gupta.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, PowerGrid and Bajaj Finserve gained up to 2.01 per cent. On the other hand, bellwether stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra, Tech Mahindra and Reliance were the laggards. ITC shares closed the session with a loss of 3.87 per cent lower and Reliance ended 1.92 per cent lower.
Despite the robust growth in this country, Apple's India share in its overall global sales remained modest -- constituting 1.5 per cent of its overall turnover of $389 billion in FY23.
'Clearly, there is a wide gap between the stated intentions of China's top leadership to improve relations with India and the PLA's aggressive border management,' says Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (retd).
After topping it for two consecutive years, Gujarat slipped three places on the NITI Aayog's Export Preparedness Index (EPI) for 2022, as Tamil Nadu emerged as the most export-ready state, the central think tank said in its report released on Monday. In a continuing trend, coastal states were found to have the most robust export infrastructure, which officials attributed to the integration of maritime trade into the core of their economies. Maharashtra and Karnataka retained their positions -- second and third, respectively; Haryana was ranked first among landlocked states and fifth overall.
The 'BluFin Business Cycle Indicator', which reflects various macroeconomic trends on a monthly basis, stood at 166.3 points in May, 5.8 per cent higher compared to the same month last year, suggesting that the Indian economy is growing at a faster rate than the previous year.
In an exclusive interview with PTI video, the minister also said an extensive risk-based analysis is done continuously to ensure the production of quality medicines in the country, and the government and regulators are always alert to ensure that no one dies due to spurious medicines.
Such campaigns would badly affect players in the traditional retail market.
The inflow of cheap capital has also kept the rupee at a high level, making exports uncompetitive and broadening the current account deficit despite falling oil prices.
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